Sabre Rattling at Iran
The most likely explanation would be a planned strike on Iran. The patriot missiles will be for shooting down Iranian missiles that are launched into Iraq and the carrier group will be used to protect the shipping lanes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. Recent speeches given by both Bush and Blair seem to hint at a possible strike on Iran. So, we are going to go on another regionally destabilising war designed to pre-emptively take out Iran's nuclear facilities to stop them from getting the bomb.
Sometimes, you can't really blame them for chasing after the bomb. Afterall, they've been singled out, along with Syria, North Korea, and Iraq, as the axis of terror/evil. And since Iraq has already been invaded, it makes sense that the rest on the list will soon be. The only possible deterrent to an attack would be the threat of retaliatory nuclear strikes if attacked. This strategy seems to have been proven by NK. Not much US sabre rattling there since they 'demonstrated' their nuclear capabilities.
Iran is in a tight spot. On both eastern and western borders, it is surrounded by US and UK troops. And it has two nuclear neighbours (Pakistan and Israel) that are not far away either. So, I wouldn't blame them for trying to get the bomb. Even if they do not intend to use it, they would need it as a defence mechanism. And it's recently come to light that the Iranian president had originally been misquoted as saying that Israel should be wiped off the map. This quote had been used by warmongers to justify all their actions against Iran.
But what can the rest of the world do if the US, UK and Israel do intend to attack Iran in the near future? Nothing as usual. Sometimes, I do regret the end of the Cold War. There was at least some semblance of a balance. We seriously need a way to keep the current super powers in check. I also wonder what the Americans are going to do about this if it ever happens. Would they continue to let more of their people die in a war with a false pretense? Or are they going to get some balls and throw the warmongers out of their government? I don't know. I just hope that what's happening now is pure sabre rattling and will not end up with an actual war.
* pd image from wikipedia *
PS. I'm not a political/war analyst. I'm just an individual frustrated with what's going on with the world.
3 comments:
hmm... if they invade iran, they're going to have to occupy it, which is going to be real tough. iran is simply put a bigger country than iraq, and they'll need more manpower. since they're already bitching against sending more troops to iraq, i doubt they'll want another offensive. air power alone is never enough to win a war. like i always say, you need tanks penetrate the holed in opposition and more importantly the infantry to hold ground. lots and lots of infantry.
however, as usual, anything can happen, and i agree that if an attack goes ahead, there's nothing the world can do about it. again, international politics has the character of a few kids playing in a sandbox.
i dun think that it'll be a war of conquest.. rather just to disable their nuclear capabilities..
haha.. that was the original plan with iraq, more or less..
but the problem would be to make sure that they don't rebuild. or go in the direction of chemical or bio... so the worst case would be to go down the road of iraq some 16 years ago. so there's gotta be someone on the ground to keep an eye on things.
anyhow, this has kinda happened before, when israel bombed this alleged iranian nuclear thing quite long ago. wonder why usa isn't using that option now?
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